Submitted by: Anonymous
It's the evening before the first caucus of the 2016 presidential election. Currently, on the Republican side, it's between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. For the Democrats, polls have been showing Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as first and second place, respectively. However, there is more than enough room for some political upsets - one of the most interesting ones concern the current Republican frontrunner: Donald J. Trump.
Billionaire Donald Trump has been the consistent frontrunner of the GOP since he announced his candidacy late last year. He seeks to maintain that lead throughout the early voting states in order to give his campaign more credibility and momentum to win the Republican nomination. However, he is arguably the most at-risk candidate in Iowa - scores of analysts are eagerly watching whether the results back up his sometimes grandiose claims or wreck his campaign.
Trump has been the frontrunner in almost all polls that have been conducted since the inception of his campaign to just last night. However, in these past few years, pollsters have been losing more and more credibility. This phenomenon started in the 2015 UK General Election, when Conservative David Cameron was pitted against Labour's Ed Milliband. In the weeks leading up to the election, pollsters - using standard polling techniques found worldwide - insisted that it would be a tight election, with barely any margin of error. After the results came in, however, it was discovered that Cameron won by a landslide, completely disproving the pollsters' predictions. If the UK general election wasn't enough, pollsters in Greece also failed to predict the incumbent party's reelection by a huge margin of error. Taken together, this pattern shows that early polls should not be too heavily relied on to make predictions about elections.
Thus, as we welcome the 2016 presidential election season with the first caucus of the year, let us remember to take polls with a grain of salt, and to always expect surprises.
It's the evening before the first caucus of the 2016 presidential election. Currently, on the Republican side, it's between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. For the Democrats, polls have been showing Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as first and second place, respectively. However, there is more than enough room for some political upsets - one of the most interesting ones concern the current Republican frontrunner: Donald J. Trump.
Billionaire Donald Trump has been the consistent frontrunner of the GOP since he announced his candidacy late last year. He seeks to maintain that lead throughout the early voting states in order to give his campaign more credibility and momentum to win the Republican nomination. However, he is arguably the most at-risk candidate in Iowa - scores of analysts are eagerly watching whether the results back up his sometimes grandiose claims or wreck his campaign.
Trump has been the frontrunner in almost all polls that have been conducted since the inception of his campaign to just last night. However, in these past few years, pollsters have been losing more and more credibility. This phenomenon started in the 2015 UK General Election, when Conservative David Cameron was pitted against Labour's Ed Milliband. In the weeks leading up to the election, pollsters - using standard polling techniques found worldwide - insisted that it would be a tight election, with barely any margin of error. After the results came in, however, it was discovered that Cameron won by a landslide, completely disproving the pollsters' predictions. If the UK general election wasn't enough, pollsters in Greece also failed to predict the incumbent party's reelection by a huge margin of error. Taken together, this pattern shows that early polls should not be too heavily relied on to make predictions about elections.
Thus, as we welcome the 2016 presidential election season with the first caucus of the year, let us remember to take polls with a grain of salt, and to always expect surprises.